NHPC IPO Allotment Status & Listing Strategy

NHPC IPO allotment status is out. Click Here to check your application status. NHPC IPO got overwhelming response similar to that of Adani power. The IPO got subscribed 23.5 times with retail segment subscribed by around 3.8 times. NHPC basis of allotment can be seen in table below. Though both Adani and NHPC IPO’s have generated tremendous response from the QIB segment, the retail oversubscription has been moderate and shows that IPO investors are still shy in applying for the IPO’s.

The lukewarm or say powerless listing of Adani power has actually validated the fears of retail Investors. Both Adani and NHPC IPO’s were considered to be priced aggressively and Adani stock has already been punished. Now is it turn of NHPC IPO ? Let’s see. NHPC stock is expected to list in first week of September.

Government has fixed NHPC offer price at Rs. 36 per share, i.e., on the higher band of the offer price. Prior to listing of Adani power, the Grey market premium of NHPC was quoting at Rs. 12-14 per share. However, the latest grey market premium is in the range of Rs. 4-5 which shows that listing for NHPC might be lackluster.

NHPC is the largest Hydro power generator in the country with substantial experience in design, development, execution and operation of Hydro-Electric Projects (HEP). The company has 13 HEP plants in operation with an installed capacity of 5,175 MW. It is currently undertaking construction of 11 HEP plants with a total installed capacity of 4,622 MW and 8 of these projects totaling 1492 MW are scheduled for completion by the year 2011-12. NHPC generated 16,582 Million Units (MUs) in 2008-09 as against 14,811 MUs in 2007-08.

On consolidated basis, NHPC reported an Operating Income (OI) of Rs 34.94 billion and Profit After Tax (PAT - excluding minority interest) of Rs 12.44 billion in 2008-09 as against an OI of Rs 29.31 billion and PAT of Rs 12.07 billion in 2007-08.

NHPC’s projects are located in India’s Northern and North-Eastern regions, which have favorable hydro resources, thereby ensuring sufficient water availability for power generation. There has been comparison between NTPC and NHPC over the valuations but one clear advantage that NHPC has is that its operation does not have fuel requirement unlike NTPC which makes its operating cost very competitive.

Another advantage of NHPC is that not only are its plants located in High energy deficit areas which ensures consistent demand, NHPC sale of Electricity is backed by LC’s from banks which can be used in case of delay in payments. Further, it is supported by a tripartite agreement between the customer state,RBI and GoI, whereby NHPC can recover the payments from the central plan assistance given to the state by GoI. As a result of these measures, NHPC, for the last few years has reported almost 100% collections against the billing to the respective states.

On the Risk aspects, NHPC projects have long gestation period and hence the the proposed projects would start operating only from 2010-11 onwards. Talking of the Financials, NHPC ROCE stands at 10.18% and RONW stands at just 6.58% due to its large equity base.

Investment Guru’s overall assessment is that NHPC is a stock which may provide good returns over long term (2 Years time frame) based on its fundamentals. The stock may list in the range of Rs. 39-42 and may remain in this range from short term perspective.

Update: NHPC is going to list on NSE and BSE on Tuesday, 1st September,2009