Sunday, May 17, 2009

The Results of General Assembly elections might have taken even the pundits of politics by surprise, however even a layman can tell you that markets are going to sky rocket on Monday. Yes, predicting Monday’s market opening is not a rocket science anymore. After a gap of 25 years, the Indian voters have been able to give a clear mandate to a single party to form a government and markets could not have wished better than this.

A 800-1000 Points gap up Opening Possible

Markets have built in an expectation of hung assembly and have been caught on a wrong footing! It is very likely that there will be mad rush of traders, who built on hopes of hung assembly and taken significant short positions, to cover up their trades and this may push sensex intraday rise in the range of 800-1000 points. Investors are advised to be cautious and not to buy shares on Monday for Investment purposes and wait for the euphoria to die down. However, traders can make a killing as the markets turn volatile.

I see these results as an opportunity for the markets to cheer up as the stable government would be able to take up reforms at a much better pace as compared to last 5 years since communist would not be seen in the new parliament. After the news of Global Recession, there was no major reason for markets to hold up and hence they are not likely to miss this opportunity.

FII’s are also expected to speed up their investments since they have more clarity on the political front. Domestic Investors and Mutual funds are also expected to jump on the bandwagon.

Which Stocks likely to move up?

Virtually every stock on Nifty is expected to move up since this would be a secular and broad based rally. However more focus will be on stocks which fall under sectors where the UPA government is going to focus as a part of its Manifesto.

The UPA Manifesto has out emphasis on Rural Development Schemes and Infrastructural development projects. Hence Stock of companies related to Agricultural products like irrigation and Fertilisers are set to catch fire. Keep an eye on Stocks like Nagarjuna Fertilisers and Jain irrigation. Infrastructure related companies in field of Power, Cement and Construction will also see a significant catch up.   Keep a watch on stocks like ACC, GVK Power & BHEL .

Congress Manifesto also provides thrust on Education. With this stock like Educomp Solutions and Aptech are likely to remain in Limelight.

Another segment likely to fire up will be banks. Rumors are that the government may soon announce another stimulus package to drive further liquidity in the markets and decisions can be taken on revising the Bank Rates. Keep an eye on stocks like PNB and SBI and HDFC Bank.

Besides the Manifesto, the Ruling party is also expected to bring back on track its program of disinvestment in PSU companies. This had hit roadblock due to strong resistance from Left parties. Though this may not be on immediate agenda of the government, it would pave the way for Re-rating of the PSU stocks.

How long will this Rally continue ?

This a hard nut to crack. Though the new strong government has given a reason for sensex to rejoice, it would at best be a short term stimulus. The fact is that the Global economy is still in the clutches of recessionary forces created by its ill-doings. India being a open economy cannot escape the burnt. However, the First quarter result has not been as bad as thought of. This shows that the impact of slowdown in India (caused by global recession) would be lesser than perceived.

The best thing India and its government did was to get proactive in dealing with the situation. This is the difference between U.S. and India. They woke up only after ruining themselves while we were proactive enough to take steps to combat the slowdown. This may led us to believe that the worst is behind us and sensex may not retest its earlier lows. However, a lot depends on the global scenario in the coming quarters and any adverse development may well leave scars on our markets too.

Labels: India Election Results, Market Update, Sensex Today, Stocks in News

Posted by Rajesh Soni :: Sunday, May 17, 2009 :: 11 comments

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Saturday, May 16, 2009

Verdict Out : Indians prefer Weak PM to Communal PM

Historical verdict shows Indians voted for Development and stability

 The India’s political theatre has come out with an unprecedented show of results. Though the final results are yet to be declared, the leads show that Congress and its allies have managed to secure a astounding victory over the BJP led alliance by a huge margin. The red Flag of Left has been teared to pieces. The political blackmailers like SP and RJD have been shown the exit door. The election results have given a clear indication that Indian public wanted a government who can take the country forward to the path of progress and prosperity while maintaining stability and peace and the mandate has been clearly in favor of congress. BJP was unable to impress the public with its campaign of a determined leader in the form of LK Advani.

The Weak PM Campaign Backfired on BJP

The PM-in-waiting Mr. Advani has made it a major propaganda that Man Mohan Singh was the weakest Prime minster India ever had. However, this message didn’t went well among the voters. Advani’s main election plank of a weak PM actually Backfired on him and I feel this one factor itself did a huge damage to the party’s prospects. Why ?

Manmohan Singh’s image as a politician is of a very clean, Honest and a intelligent person. To put it more clearly , the work done Mannohan singh as a finance minster in the Narashima Rao government still lies deep rooted in the minds of the people. If you ask me , I would say that he is one person whose image of a clean and honest person and a person who has transformed the country’s fortune by his visionary economic wisdom is unparalleled even if you combine the intellectual wisdom all all the leaders of BJP.

Indian voters rejected Advani’s plea that Manmohan singh was a weak prime minister and this time they have made sure that he can emerge even more stronger.

Rahul Gandhi’s Acceptance among the Youth of India

Rahul Gandhi was successful in projecting himself as a leader who is capable of representing the youth of India. The charisma of Gandhi family, Rahul’s handling of the election campaign and his show of emotional attachment to the villages of India and the poor & backward people worked really well and transformed into a huge success of party not only in the written off state of U.P., but also helped it clinch a large number of seats due to acceptable of Rahul Gandhi among the youth’s. Rahul has definitely emerged as the youth icon of India and has established a place in their hearts.

People want development and not Temples

Every time elections happen, BJP starts its old tune of Jai Shree Ram and its promise of construction of Lord Ram’s Temple. This time also the party repeated its rhetoric but the Indian voters have made up their mind. They had enough of these slogan to arouse their religious sentiments for generating votes and have made up their mind that Ram Mandir should not be the criteria of choosing a party to lead the nation. They wanted a government who can make their lives better and work on developmental issues.

BJP didn’t offered a Unique Proposition

The lack of unity among the second rung leaders in BJP was clearly visible and the party didn’t offered any unique proposition to the public to vote for them. L K Advani could not impress the public with his promise of a determined leadership to the country. He proved too weak to steer the party on its own and projections of people like Narendra Modi as a future prime minister also proved self destructive to party’s image among the voters.

To summarize the election outcome, the Indian public has placed its trust on the performance of the UPA government and wants it to continue to take the nation on the path of development and prosperity. The task on hand is for sure a litmus test for the UPA and the expectation levels have gone up for sure.

Coming Next : Impact of Election results on Stock Markets

Labels: India Election Results

Posted by Rajesh Soni :: Saturday, May 16, 2009 :: 1 comments

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Tuesday, May 12, 2009

Mhada Lottery draw to be held on 19th May

The fate of lacs of applicants for the allotment of 3863 Flats under Mhada Scheme is soon going to be decided. Mhada is going to held a draw  by lottery to declare the successful applicants on Tuesday, 19th May,2009.

Around 4.35 Lac applicants are trying their luck to get a pie of the 3863 flats. Out of these, 5300 applications have been rejected due to lack of documentation. The list of applicants who are eligible to participate in the draw has been put on the Mhada Website. The lottery draw will be held at Rangsharada Auditorium at Bandra (W)

If you want to witness the lottery process, Mhada will distribute free passes on First cum first serve basis between 11-2 PM at the Mhada Head-office at Bandra (E). Results will also be displayed outside the Auditorium on the LED Screen.

The whole process of lottery would be video recorded to ensure transparency

List of Eligible Applicants

Mhada Circular on Lottery Results

Related Posts

MHADA offers 3683 Flats at 50% of Market Price

Update : To view the list of persons qualified for the lottery of 3863 tenements to be held on 19th May 2009, click on the respective scheme code below

190A	203	214	223	232
191A	206	215	224	233
192A	207	216	225	234
193A	208	217	226	235
195A	209	218	227	236
196A	210	219	228	237
200	211	220	229
201	212	221	230
202	213	222	231

Labels: Draw Results, MHADA, Real Estate

Posted by Rajesh Soni :: Tuesday, May 12, 2009 :: 0 comments

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