Teledata : 8 to 80- Transformation or Illusion ?

Exceptional turnaround but Promoter Stake a cause for Concern

This stock has been one of the most debated stock in recent times. And I know it was cursed, many a year ago, as a stock which has duped many investors of their hard earned money. Yes, We are talking of Teledata Informatics. I had been getting emails from the readers on the prospects of this stock given its rise from Rs. 8 to Rs. 80 and it made me write this post for the benefit of the readers. Let's see what is going on with the company and its stock price and what are the future prospects !

Teledata on Investment Guru Blog
July 13,2005 This was the day on which I wrote a post on Teledata informatics stating that the stock is a dark horse and should be kept on watchlist. And I know this post drew large number of comments both positive as well as negative from the readers. The stock was then trading at Rs 28 down from its high of Rs. 60. Things changed from bad to worse from then and the stock price plummeted to Rs. 8. However, the situation took a turn and the stock never looked back ! So what's behind the transformation of this stock or will it turn out to be another illusion ? Let's find out.

About Teledata
Teledata Informatics Ltd is a global software solutions company providing enterprise-wide solutions for the Marine, Education, Utility and Telecom sectors. With over 2600 employees globally, Teledata is the only company in Asia to offer comprehensive Marine software solutions. The company has a vision to position itslef as a leading technology solutions provider and be among the top 20 global IT companies by 2010.

The Steward
The Chairman Gp. Capt. K. Balasubramanian IAF (Retd.) is a Graduate Mechanical Engineer, M.Sc (Engineering Cranfield -U.K), and an M.B.A from Madurai Kamraj University. He joined the Indian Air Force in the year 1962 as Pilot officer and rose to the rank of Group Captain before his retirement in 1994.He is currently Chairman of the company. He plays a key role in defining the company strategy and in continuously using technology and innovation to maintain its leadership of the industry.

Transformation through Acquisitions

Teledata has been on an aggressive acquisition spree during the last Fiscal year and has acquired as many as 12 companies. In October 2005 the company acquired Picnic Marine, a thailand based company for US$ 27 Mllion.

In Jan., 2006 the company has taken over the majority stake in Hyper Sascom Ltd incorporated in the state of Bihar. Hyper Sascom Limited, Patna is having an agreement with District Computer Centre Society, Patna to provide Computer Education for all students studying in all Rajkiya, Rajkiyakrit, Minorities and other Govt. and Govt. aided high / middle schools of Patna Dist aggregating to 205 Schools. The Student Strength of the school is approx 1.80 lakhs .

In Feb 2006, te company had taken over 60% in SBC Data Systems Ltd, Ireland through its subsidiary. SBC Data Systems Ltd. provides solutions to the transportation and logistics industry. SBC Data Systems Ltd, Ireland is a company having a turnover of USD 7 Million with a profit margin of 30% . The per employee contribution to the company’s profitability is more than the average industry standards.

In March 2006, Teledata had acquired 100% stake in Alpha Soft Services Corporation, USA through its subsidiary. Alpha soft is a 28 Million US $ Company providing high quality IT services in the areas of Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP), Data Warehousing, E-Business and related technologies. Vendor specific technologies include Oracle, PeopleSoft, BEA, IBM, ATG, Informatica, Business Objects, Cognos and Microsoft. The tremendous growth of AlphaSoft has earned it a place on the prestigious Inc. 500, ranking #131 in its first year of eligibility. AlphaSoft also ranked #16 in the San Francisco Business Times’ Top 150 Fastest Growing Private Companies list.

In April,2006 the company acquired 80% in I-Max Networks Limited, London through its subsidiary. I-Max Networks Ltd is a provider of telecommunication carrier services, equipment distributor and an integrated solution provider. The company specializes in IP telephony - VoIP, TDM & Wireless communication. The core business is based on wholesale and retail of International voice traffic and aggregating traffic for Incumbent Local Operators. Their subsidiary Voicetec Systems Ltd caters to the wholesale business. This was a step towards strengthening its presence in the communication sector.

In January 2007, it acquired 100% stake in Soltius Pte Ltd, Singapore through its wholly owned subsidiary, Bitech International LLC, Dubai. Headquartered in Singapore, Soltius is a Global IT solutions & Services Company that offers expertise in areas of business solutions and services. With over 800 professionals on board worldwide Soltius focuses on SAP projects and consultancy services. The company’s industry-specific groups generate strategies rooted in a deep understanding of the practices and processes that help identify appropriate business solutions and services for various industries.

In January 2007, Teledata Informatics Ltd had invested USD105 million to acquire majority stake in Singapore headquartered IT distribution major and PC maker - eSys Technologies Pte Ltd. The investment will enable Teledata capitalize on the synergy between Teledata and eSys which would help accelerate the business levels with tremendous prospect.

So one can see that Teledata's business model has been of growth through acquisition. Investment Guru believes that integration of all these business with the business model of the company will be the major factor for Teledata's future growth. After making these smart acquisition the uphill task is to integrate them and make the best use of the synergies available.

Teledata -eSys to set up PC Manufacturing unit in Himachal Pradesh

eSys Technologies is setting up a PC manufacturing unit in Baddi, Himachal Pradesh to be operational in 2007. The installed capacity of the plant would be 1,200,000 units per annum and the total capital investment is expected be around Rs 250 crores.


Impressive growth in Topline and Bottomline

For the Fourth Quarter ending March 2007, the company has posted revenues of Rs. 1572.81 Cr. against Rs. 453.07 Cr. for the respective quarter last year recording a jump of 247%. Net Profit for the above period of Rs. 207.13 Cr. has witnessed a surge of 416% compared to the same quarter last year.

For the Year Ended March 2007, the company posted a Topline of Rs. 3802 Crores and a Net profit of 489 Crores. This shows a sproadic increase in both tipline and bottom line in the last leg of the year.

For the quarter ended March 07, the EPS stood at Rs. 10.53 while the Full Year EPS for 2006-07 stood at Rs. 27.25 If we evaulate the company current stock price on its EPS, Teledata is currently qouting at roughly 3 P/E.

The PE levels makes a case of value buying but this is not new phenomenon for the company. The company's stock has been a laggard for a long time and this is nothing new. What is new is the developments on the acquisition front which have provided the much needed visibility to the company and push to its topline. No doubt the stock is qouting at very attractive levels given the growth trajectory....so what is holding up the stock to attin PE levels comparable to other Good IT stocks ?

Shareholding Pattern- Cause of Concern


Yes, this is the main bone of contention for a shareholder of the company. A general question which arises is that if the company is on a fast growth track and the management sounds so cpnfident of the future growth prospects of the company, why are the promoters holding such a small pie in the company ? Yes, we can see that there is some shift from Mar-06 when the promoter holding was just 4.49 % and now the promoter holding stands at 16.09 %. This is still a low promoter holding for such a fast growing company and raises doubts over the promoters intention. A obvious question that arises is " Are the promoter jacking up the prices through manipulation for their vested interest?" I would not comment on this as I do not have clarity on what is going in promoter's mind. But for sure this is one of my biggest concern for the stock.

Stock Price Movement and Volumes

Though the company started its acquisition spree long back sine October 2005 and most of the acquisitions happened in Year 2006 , the stock price picked up in real terms only after acquisition of Soltius and beame more pronounced with acquisition of Esys. The stock price didn't looked back since then and the stock has undergone series of Upper circuits. The current circuit limit for the stock is 5% and the stock continues to hit the same. Another interesting thing to note is that the stock price rise has come with huge volumes which suggests that there has been a wide circulation of the stock among public holdings as well as active trading is taking place in the stock.


Teledata - Buy , Hold or Sell ?

Well, that's a tough call given the mixed outlook on the company fundamentals. Though the growth delivered by the company specially in the later half of Year 2006-07 is outstanding and augers well for the stock price, the promoter holding which is still at lower levels has left the investors worried about their intentions.

The story which could be percieved as a transformation or turnaround has got grey spots with uncertaintly over promoter's intentions. I beleive the promoter should come up on some forum to reveal their strategy and reasons behind a lower stake in the company.

Investment guru is of the view that the stock at current levels has still the steam left but it offer a High risk , High return proposition. The short term target for the stock is Rs 100 ( 10 days timeframe) and Investors who are invested should keep a close watch on the volumes. Any reversal in the uptrend should be used as a caution and more than 10% fall should be ideal for taking a stoploss position. For long term perspective we would need to watch how the company delivers going forward and how well does the mangement demonstrates its confidence in the business model of the company. Definitely a dark horse for Long term Investors !

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Market Chers Infosys results, Guidance

Infosys sends positive wibes, posts 57% YOY rise in Profits

The infosys results which were awaited very anxiously by the markets came out to be a morale booster for the markets. Though the results had not thrown any extraordinary surprise, the markets took comfort in the fact that there was no bad news either.

Infosys FY07 Revenues were up 45.91% to Rs 13,893 crore from Rs 9,521 crore. Net profit leaped 56.87% to Rs 3,856 crore from Rs 2,458 crore.

The company reported net profit of Rs 1,144 crore in the fourth quarter versus Rs 983 crore in the previous year, a growth of 16.38%. The net profit included Rs 124 crore of reversal of tax provision.Its revenues increased by 3.2% to Rs 3,772 crore from Rs 3,655 crore, QoQ.

The company has added 34 new clients in Q4 compared to 43 new clients in Q3 and 5992 employees versus 3282 employees in Q4.

As per Indian GAAP, Infosys has predicted an EPS of Rs 80.29 to Rs 81.58 for FY 2008, a growth of 20 - 22%, compared to an EPS of Rs 66.86 in FY 2007. The company had forecast 22.6 - 24.6% growth in revenue for FY 2008, between Rs 17038 crore and Rs 17308 crore. Infosys has considered the rupee-dollar conversion rate at 43.10.

The Board of Directors recommended a final dividend of Rs. 6.50 per share (130% on par value of Rs. 5 per share) for fiscal 2007

Next on Investment Guru : Teledata: Transformation or Illusion ? Read More!

Orbit lists on 12th April, ICRA to list on 13th April

Chances of Good listing for Orbit look bleak
Orbit Corporation is listing tomorrow on BSE. The company offered 91 Lac shares at Rs. 117 per share with one detachable equity warrant per equity share. The issue was subscribed 3.8 times. The company is in the business of redeveloping existing properties in Mumbai. The shares were offered at a PE of 25. Given the current listing trend for lesser known companies and construction stocks in particular, the listing is not expected to be a good one . Investment Guru expects the stock to list in the range of 115-125 and then settle in the range of 100-115.

ICRA Ltd. to list with fireworks on 13th April,2007
The story here is different. ICRA Ltd offered 25.81 Lac shares at Rs. 330 per share. The issue got overwhelming response and was subscribed 73 times with retail portion subscribed by 53 times. You can read more about the company in my earlier post. The stock was priced attractively as compared to its listed peer Crisil and hence the stock is expected to see a good listing. Investment Guru expects the stock to list in the range of Rs. 480 - 520 and then settle in the range of 450-480. Though the stock is a good candidate for long term hold, Investors can opt to book partial listing gains at a price above Rs. 500. Party time for all those who got allotment ! Read More!

Market Update : Results to dictate trends

Q4 set to mirror Q3 success story, Outlook positively cautious

The Indian markets ended flat yesterday with a positive bias at the end of the session. The current flavour of the markets is the earning season which is going to be kicked off in a major way from Friday with tech bell weather Infosys declaring its results. The coming week would be driven mainly by the results.

Looking Beyond Results
Yes, more than the results, investors are awaiting what Infosys has to say for its outlook on the IT business and how does it moves its guidance numbers for the next year. Investors, of late, have been on the sidelines with news of appreciating rupee against dollar and slow down in US economy creating unceratinty on the prospects of IT companies. Well the market leader is expected to clear the fog and bring clearity on the impact of the above two factors on the performance of IT companies.

Asian markets on a firm ground
Asian markets continued to gain backed by positive clues from the US markets and news that Bank of Japan is in no hurry to raise interest rates.

Japan's Nikkei was up 14.33 points while Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose 0.42% or 86.01 points.
South Korea's Seoul Composite gained 1.12%,Taiwan surged 0.49% and Singapore's Straits Times advanced 0.04%.

Stocks in News

Jet gets "Sahara"
Jet Airways is understood to have negotiated a takeover of Air Sahara after hanging it for around nine months. The imapct of the deal would be cleared once the parties finally declare the deal, however, the deal would defintely provide jet with the much needed economies of scale which has become a deciding factor in the competitive aviation sector. Investment guru blog will bring out a post on the post deal scenario soon.

I-Gate Global Solutions
iGATE Global Solutions has announced its fourth quarter results. The company reported net profit of Rs 22.6 crore (Rs 226 million) versus Rs 15.95 crore (Rs 159.5 million), a growth of 41.69% QoQ. Its revenues declined by 0.29% to Rs 210.1 crore (Rs 2.10 billion) from Rs 210.73 crore (Rs 2.10 billion) in the previous quarter. The EBITDA margin stood at 15.3% in fourth quarter. The EPS was at Rs 15.97

Gujarat NRE Coke
The company reported net profit of Rs 50.9 crore in the fourth quarter versus loss of Rs 42.3 crore in the corresponding quarter of previous year. Its net sales increased to Rs 179 crore from Rs 84 crore. The OPM improved to 36.7% versus 6.3%. The company's FY07 EPS stood at Rs 2.34. Read More!

IPO Allotment Status : ICRA Limited

IPo Allotment status for ICRA is out .
You can click the lik below to check status of your application

ICRA Allotment Status

Stay tuned to read the listing strategy for ICRA on this blog. The same will be published one day before listing date.

Read IPO Update on ICRA by Investment Guru. Read More!

Investing Legends : Benjamin Graham

Benjamin Graham : The Father of Value Investing

“The individual investor should act consistently as an investor and not as a speculator. This means.....that he should be able to justify every purchase he makes and each price he pays by impersonal, objective reasoning that satisfies him that he is getting more than his money's worth for his purchase.” Ben Graham


“Most of the time common stocks are subject to irrational and excessive price fluctuations in both directions as the consequence of the ingrained tendency of most people to speculate or gamble... to give way to hope, fear and greed.” - Graham on Market Moods

"The one principal that applies to nearly all these so-called "technical approaches" is that one should buy because a stock or the market has gone up and one should sell because it has declined. This is the exact opposite of sound business sense everywhere else, and it is most unlikely that it can lead to lasting success in Wall Street. In our own stock-market experience and observation, extending over 50 years, we have not known a single person who has consistently or lastingly made money by thus "following the market." We do not hesitate to declare that this approach is as fallacious as it is popular." Graham on market Startegy


Yes, I know I made you wait a lot to put forward the second article in the series of knowing about legendary Investors and their investing styles. In this article we are going to discuss about none other than the Guru of the Gurus, "Benjamin Graham". Yes, We are talking about the man who taught Investing skills to the most well known Investment Guru "Warren Buffet".

Childhood Struggles and the Natural Investor
Benjamin Graham was born in London in 1894, the son of an importer. His family migrated to America when Ben was very young and opened an importing business. They did not do well, Graham’s father dying not long after moving to America and his mother losing the family savings in 1907 during an economic crisis.

Destiny had something else for this Genius
Graham was a star student. He managed to get to Columbia University and after graduation, offered a teaching post. However, destiny had somethign else in store for this genius and he took a job as a chalker on Wall Street with Newburger, Henderson and Loeb. It did not took him long when he began doing financial research for the firm and he became a partner in the firm.

Learning the hard way
In 1926, Graham formed an investment partnership with another broker called Jerome Newman. He also started lecturing at night on finance at Columbia, a relationship that was to continue until his retirement in 1956.

The Crash of 1929 almost wiped Graham out but the partnership survived with the assistance of friends and the sale of most of the partners’ personal assets. Graham’s wife was forced to return to work as a dance teacher. Graham was soon back on his feet but he had learned valuable lessons . These lessons build the edifice for the greatest book to be ever written on Investment.

The partnership between Graham and Newman continued until 1956 but never again lost money for its investors, earning an annual return of about 17 per cent.

Security Analysis
In 1934, Benjamin Graham together with David Dodd, another Columbia academic, published the classic Security Analysis which has never been out of print. Despite the crash, the book proposed that it was possible to successfully invest in common stocks as long as sound investment principles were applied. Graham and Dodd introduced the concept of ‘intrinsic value’ and the wisdom of buying stocks at a discount to that value. This books has been regarded as the "Bible " for the students of Investments for a decades. However this was just a beginning and the history had yet to unfold another gem written by benjamin.

The Intelligent Investor
The Intelligent Investor was published in 1949, is a widely acclaimed book on investing. Famous investor and billionaire Warren Buffet describes it as "by far the best book on investing ever written".

Ben Graham taught investments for 28 years at Columbia University, and perhaps his success as a professional investor is matched by his success as an academic, which is most unusual. His published works have instructed many thousands of students and, indeed, his strength as an academic is derived from his many years experience on Wall Street.

Understanding Ben Graham's Investment Philosophy

Margin of Safety
"To have a true investment, there must be a true margin of safety. And a true margin of safety is one that can be demonstrated by figures, by persuasive reasoning, and by reference to a body of actual experience" - Benjamin Graham

Graham looks for what he calls a "Margin of Safety" when investing in stocks. This is defined by how much a stock is trading below its intrinsic value which is what the business would be worth if it were sold today.

Graham was most insistent that any security purchased should represent good value. He felt stocks should be bought like groceries, not like perfume, and he distilled his investment philosophy down to just three words, "MARGIN OF SAFETY". By margin of safety, he meant that any stock bought should be worth considerably more than it costs. He sometimes suggested at least 50 percent more. Stocks bought with a margin of safety give some assurance that one has invested wisely. And stocks bought with a margin of safety should be low risk, high return investments.

Investment Versus Speculation
The distinction between investment and speculation is central to Graham's investment philosophy. He defined these terms thusly: "An investment operation is one which, upon thorough analysis promises safety of principal and adequate return. Operations not meeting these requirements are speculative.

Buying and Selling points - Mr. Market Theory
Stocks will fluctuate substantially in value. For a true investor, the only significant meaning of price fluctuations is that they offer ". . . an opportunity to buy wisely when prices fall sharply and to sell wisely when they advance a great deal."

Using his famous Mr. Market parable, Graham suggests the attitude one should adopt toward fluctuations in prices.

Graham's favourite allegory is that of Mr. Market, an obliging fellow who turns up every day at the shareholder's door offering to buy or sell his shares at a different price. Often, the price quoted by Mr. Market seems plausible, but sometimes it is ridiculous. The investor is free to either agree with his quoted price and trade with him, or to ignore him completely. Mr. Market doesn't mind this, and will be back the following day to quote another price. The point is that the investor should not regard the whims of Mr. Market as determining the value of the shares that the investor owns. He should profit from market folly rather than participate in it. The investor is advised to concentrate on the real life performance of his companies and receiving dividends, rather than be too concerned with Mr. Market's often irrational behaviour.

Select Low Price/Book Value Stocks
Graham felt rather strongly that an investor should not pay much more than book value for a stock. In his word, "Strangely enough we shall suggest as one of our chief requirements . . . that our readers limit themselves to issues selling not far above their tangible-asset value."

Selecting Unpopular Stocks If an investor is to do better than average, Graham argued that his or her investment policies should not be popular. He believed that most Wall Street professionals tend to seek out stocks with the best growth prospects and to ignore other stocks. This bias causes unpopular stocks to become undervalued and good buys.

Benjamin Graham’s investment principles

Know the business
The investor needs to become knowledgeable about the business or businesses carried on by the company in which they propose to invest – what it sells, how it operates, what is the competitive environment, what are the threats and opportunities, the strengths and weaknesses.
An investor who bought a fruit shop, or a shoe factory, without investigating these things, and knowing them, would be foolish. The same applies to share investment. An investor who does not understand the business should not be investing in it.


Know who runs the business
An investor who cannot operate the business for himself or herself, needs a manager. This is the position of the average share investor, who owns a share of an enterprise that is run by others.
The owner of a business in this position would want a manager who will manage the business competently, efficiently and honestly. The share investor should not be satisfied with less. Unless the investor believes, through sound research, that the company is managed efficiently, competently and honestly, in the best interests of the shareholders, the investment should not be made.


Invest for profits
An investor would not normally buy a business that did not, on proper research, appear to have reasonable expectations of producing good profits over time. Share investors should take the same approach and buy, as Graham says, "not on optimism, but on arithmetic".


Have confidence
Graham encourages investors to properly research their investments and, if they believe their investment judgment to be sound, to act on it. He cautions investors in this position against listening to others.

"You are neither right nor wrong because the crowd disagrees with you. You are right [or wrong] because your data and reasoning are right [or wrong]."

Let's Salute the wisdom of this Investing legend who has been referred to as "Father of Value Investing" for propogating the Investment wisdoms through his everlasting writings.

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