Warren Buffett and value Investing

"You ought to be able to explain why you’re taking the job you’re taking, why you’re making the investment you’re making, or whatever it may be. And if it can’t stand applying pencil to paper, you’d better think it through some more. And if you can’t write an intelligent answer to those questions, don’t do it." Warren Buffett

There have been a lot of Investment guru’s around the world, but one name that is cynosure of all eyes and is most respected for his investing sense is, undoubtedly, Warren Buffett. Though I do not cover such articles on my blog, I thought it would be a good idea to occasionally post few such posts featuring the great investors and their ideologies. And when it comes to investing , who should we talk of first, other than warren buffett, who is the Second richest person in the world and he did it all through investing. We will cover Benjamin Graham, Charlie, David and of course India’s investing sensation Rakesh Jhunjhunwala among others in a series of posts.

The Oracle of Omaha – Investing since Childhood
About Buffett’s Personal Life
Warren Edward Buffett was born on August 30, 1930. The only boy, he was the second of three children, and displayed an amazing aptitude for both money and business at a very early age. His father was a stock broker turned Congressman.

In 1947, a seventeen year old Warren Buffett graduated from High School. It was never his intention to go to college; he had already made $5,000 delivering newspapers (this is equal to $42,610.81 in 2000). His father had other plans, and urged his son to attend the Wharton Business School at the University of Pennsylvania. Buffett stayed two years, complaining that he knew more than his professors. When Howard was defeated in the 1948 Congressional race, Warren returned home to Omaha and transferred to the University of Nebraska-Lincoln. Working full-time, he managed to graduate in only three years.

Buffett married Susan Thompson in 1952. They had three children, Susie, Howard, and Peter. The couple began living separately in 1977, though they remained married until her death in July 2004. His daughter Susie lives in Omaha and does charitable work through the Susan A. Buffett Foundation and as a national board member of Girls, Inc. On his 76th birthday Buffett married his longtime companion, Astrid Menks, who had lived with him since his wife's departure

An Investor by birth
Warren showed an Investing aptitude since his early childhood. He was a born Investor though he refined his Investing sense under stalwarts like Benjamin Graham.

As a boy, irrespective of his family background, he delivered newspapers to make extra money and this probably sparked his interest in the media where he has made several successful investments including the Washington Post Company, a stock that has made him a lot of money and which he vows never to sell.

At the age of 13, Buffett filed his first income tax return, deducting his bicycle as a work expense. At the age of 15, Buffett and a friend spent $25 to purchase a used pinball machine, which they placed in a barber shop. Within months, they owned three machines in different locations.

Association with Benjamin
Buffett enrolled at Columbia Business School after learning that Benjamin Graham and David Dodd, two well-known securities analysts, taught there. Buffett graduated and wanted to work on Wall Street.

Buffett offered to work for Graham for free but Graham refused. He purchased a Texaco gas station as a side investment, but that venture did not work out as well as he had hoped. Meanwhile, he worked as a stockbroker. He finally got the job with Benjamin Graham’s firm and, as he generously acknowledges, learned a lot about stock investment from The Master.

Graham retired and folded up his partnership. Since leaving college six years earlier, Buffett's personal savings grew from $9,800 to over $140,000. He returned home to Omaha and created Buffett Associates, Ltd., an investment partnership.

Berkshire Hathaway
In 1962, Buffett discovered a textile manufacturing firm, Berkshire Hathaway, that was selling for under $8 per share. Through his partnership, Buffett eventually purchased 49% of the outstanding shares. Buffett maintained BH's core business of textile milling, but by 1967 was expanding into the insurance industry and other investments.

Berkshire first ventured into the insurance business with the purchase of National Indemnity Company. In the late 1970s, Berkshire acquired an equity stake in the Government Employees Insurance Company (GEICO), which forms the core of its insurance operations today (and is a major source of capital for BH's other investments). In 1985, the last textile operations (BH's historic core) were shut down.

Berkshire Hathaway , a massive holding company headquartered in Omaha, Nebraska, USA, that oversees and manages a number of subsidiary companies. Berkshire Hathaway's core business is insurance, including property and casualty insurance, reinsurance and specialty nonstandard insurance. The Company averaged a phenomenal 25%+ annual return to its shareholders for the last 25 years while employing large amounts of capital and minimal debt.

Warren Buffet’s Value Investing principles

The business the company is in should be simple and understandable.

The firm should have a consistent operating history, manifested in operating earnings that are stable and predictable.

The firm should be in a business with favorable long term prospects.

The managers of the company should be candid. As evidenced by the way he treated his own stockholders, Buffett put a premium on managers he trusted. The managers of the company should be leaders and not followers.

The company should have a high return on equity. Buffett emphasizes return on equity (ROE), a key measure of a company's profitability. He prefers to invest in companies where he can confidently forecast future ROEs at least 10 years out. He is particularly fond of firms that don't require a lot of capital, as they tend to produce much higher returns on equity.

Consistently Strong Free Cash Flow. Buffett also seeks companies with significant free cash flow. Always mindful of the risks associated with investing, he ensures that his companies have plenty of money left over to invest in their growth after they have paid the bills.

Limited Debt. In the 1990s, Buffett bought insurers Geico and General Re because he liked how the companies limited and managed their debt.Buffett also likes the "float" that insurance companies offer. Policyholders pay premiums up front, but claims are paid out later -- providing insurance companies with a steady stream of low-cost cash to play with. Until policyholders collect on their policies or claims, the company can invest those billions in stocks/bonds or other areas, and who better to invest that money than Buffett himself?

Margin of Safety. If you understood a business perfectly and the future of the business, you would need very little in the way of a margin of safety. So, the more vulnerable the business is, assuming you still want to invest in it, the larger margin of safety you'd need.

Read More!

Tanla Solution Allotment Status Tomorrow

Dear Friends,

I can make out the intense curiosity among the investors to see their allotment status for Tanla Solutions IPO. Some of our friends are trying to spread rumors about allotment status on various forums. Hence, I decided to call up Karvy and confirm. Based on the information I received , Karvy is going to put the allotment Status on its Website by 10 AM tomorrow, 28th December,2006. You can check the allotment status tomorrow by clicking the link below

Tanla IPO Allotment Status
Read More!

Stock Review : AKSH OPTIFIBRE

High on Promises, Low on Performance

Stock : Aksh Optifibre

CMP : Rs 41.90

Risk : High

Outlook : Negative

I am sure a lot of Investors are dying to see something on this stock. This stock which was a turnaround attraction in the year 2004 and again in the year 2005 had not been able to deliver returns to its shareholders in terms of both delivering on its promises of high growth and creating shareholder wealth.


Investment Guru blog had also recommended the stock on November 26th, 2005 classifying the stock as a strong turnaround candidate and strong business outlook. This blog carried a short term tag of 90 and long term tag of Rs. 120 for the stock. The stock, though delivered its short term target, failed to keep up its commitment of strong growth and has been a laggard since then. I have been getting lot of queries from the visitors too, to write a review on this stock. I know the news is not good for the investors but let us take a hard bite on this and see what's this stock is up to.

Returns to Investors

Photobucket - Video and Image Hosting
You can make out from the above chart that this stock has been a continuous laggard for the whole year and is currently trading near to its 52 week low of Rs. 39. The stock was trading at Rs . 41.90 as on 26th December,2006. The volumes have also followed suit with spikes at certain intervals, which however didn’t resulted in impacting the price positively. On an overall basis the stock has eroded the investor wealth by 53% within the last one year.


What went wrong with Aksh Optifibre ?
I do not have a copy of the annual report of the company. However from the summary of the results shown in the table below, the company has failed to deliver on the promises of strong growth backed by strong order book and 50% capacity expansion to meet the projected growth. So what went wrong with the company’s plan? I think the answer needs to come from the company’s chairman. I had written an email to the company secretary, asking him to clarify certain questions on the performance of the company, however there was no response from their side.

Photobucket - Video and Image Hosting

Sales down Sharply
The company’s sales for the quarter ended Sep’06 are down by 50% over the previous quarter and down 69% over the quarter ending Sep’05.

From profits to Losses
The company’s operating profits were down 6% versus Sep’05. The net loss was 0.05 % as compared to a net profit margin of 15% in Sep’05.

Shareholding Pattern

As of September ’06, the shareholding pattern looks as follows :

Promoters : 30%

Mutual Funds : 8%

Non-Institutional

Corporate : 12%

Individuals : 41%

Others : 9%

From above we can make out that a large chunk of the stock is in hands of the public. FII’s hold only 9000 shares in the company (One Investor). This shows that the stock’s price movement will depend on large extent to the its ability to draw FII attention . However the possibility of same looks bleak.

Slew of announcements

Foray into IPTV
The company in association with MTNL on October 17, 2006 has announced the launch of India's first IPTV Service in Delhi. The Service will offer traditional television broadcast, video and Music on demand and video calling TV facilities. However, the ability of the company to deliver in this new initiative is questionable.

Amalgamation of Aksh BroadBand Ltd.
The company is considering amalgamation of Aksh Braod band Ltd. With itself.

Issue of Fresh Equity

The Board of Directors of the Company on December 05, 2006 has passed a resolution by circulation recommending for the issue of fresh equity / ADRs / GDRs / FCCBs / Convertible Bonds, in the domestic market and / or International Offerings through Public Issue, Rights issue, Preferential issue and / or Pvt Placement with or without green shoe option to the extent of USD 30 mn with a green shoe option of USD 4.5 mn, subject to approval of shareholders to be obtained by means of Extra-Ordinary General Meeting of the shareholders of the Company to be held on January 06, 2007.

Outlook on the stock
After reviewing the company’s performance and its stock price movement , Investment Guru is of the view that Investors should not expect much to happen on this counter. Though the stock is quoting near its 52 week low, the chances of a speedy recovery doesn’t exists. The company has to deliver better results and revive confidence of the investors in order to move its stock price upwards. Read More!

Sensex Today: Sensex inches up by 45 pts.

Tech Mahindra, I-flex, Glenmark & Moser Baer in thick of action

Sensex behaved again in the manner we predicted yesterday. Marred with lot of volatility, it finally managed to add 45 points with an intra day volatility of 260 points. Action was seen in the Auto stocks primarily on renewed buying interest. However, Tech Mahindra was the star attraction of todya's trade. The stock closed 20% higher with no sellers at Rs. 1490. The company has announced the signing of a five-year deal to provide BT with strategic sourcing services. This contract is expected to create new revenue for Tech Mahindra in excess of $1 Billion over this period.

However the day was not good for I-flex investors as the stock tumbled by 11% on fears of dumping of the stocks by large players in open market. The stock, intrestinglly, was quoting at a huge discount in futures yesterday as compared to its closing price in cash segment.

Another attraction was listing of the Great Offshore. The stock settled at Rs 725 on NSE which is in line with market expectations. Read More!

Sensex Today : Sensex down 42 amid Volatility

Sensex gets slimmer , sheds 42 points

Yes, the sensex behaved the way we have discussed yesterday. The day was marked with immense volatility. This trend will continue tomorrow and we will see swings between the bears and the bulls. Traders should be cautious and small investors should stay away from trading at such junctures. Stock picking at lower levels may continue.

Attractions of the day

The two IPO's listed in line with Investment Guru's expectation. Sobha Developers started with the fireworks to list above 1000 levels and finally settled at 925. The stock is trying to move in tandem with Parsvanath Developers and may find support at 850-875 levels.

Ruchira disappointed on listing. The stock though quoted a high of Rs.24 slipped away to discount and could not recover from the lows.

Tech Mahindra touched its all time high amid talks of company bidding for UK operations of Tiscali.

Gitanjali Gems was also in the first half with news that it has acquired a majority ownership interest in Samuels Jewelers Inc. which operates 97 retail jewelry stores in 18 states throughout the United States. However, the euphoria died down with stock finally settling at Rs.220 Read More!

Shobha will Rock, Ruchira may Disappoint

Two IPO's are listing today on NSE and BSE. Lets see the possible listing and strategy.

Shobha developers is expected to follow suit of its brother Prasvanath and the stock may list in the range of 1000-1050. Investors are advised to book profits if the listing happens above these levels.

Ruchira papers is also listing today. However this IPO may not delight the investors and is expected to list near its issue price of Rs. 23. A listing above Rs. 25 should be considered as a window for booking gains. Read More!